China Exchange Rate Transparency Act of 2025

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Bill ID: 119/hr/692
Last Updated: August 19, 2026

Sponsored by

Rep. Meuser, Daniel [R-PA-9]

ID: M001204

Follow the money

The bill

China Exchange Rate Transparency Act of 2025

HR. 692, 119th Congress — read as touching Big Tech Platforms.

The sponsor

Rep. Meuser, Daniel [R-PA-9]

Every bill has someone who introduced it. That name is where the paper trail starts.

The money

$99,770 raised

22 itemised contributions to this sponsor, pulled from FEC filings.

The alignment

85% match to Project 2025

This bill's text tracks the "Trade" section, p. 816-818 of the Mandate for Leadership.

Bill's Journey to Becoming a Law

Track this bill's progress through the legislative process

Latest Action

Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations.

February 10, 2025

Introduced

Committee Review

Floor Action

Passed House

Senate Review

📍 Current Status

Next: Both chambers must agree on the same version of the bill.

🎉

Passed Congress

🖊️

Presidential Action

⚖️

Became Law

📚 How does a bill become a law?

1. Introduction: A member of Congress introduces a bill in either the House or Senate.

2. Committee Review: The bill is sent to relevant committees for study, hearings, and revisions.

3. Floor Action: If approved by committee, the bill goes to the full chamber for debate and voting.

4. Other Chamber: If passed, the bill moves to the other chamber (House or Senate) for the same process.

5. Conference: If both chambers pass different versions, a conference committee reconciles the differences.

6. Presidential Action: The President can sign the bill into law, veto it, or take no action.

7. Became Law: If signed (or if Congress overrides a veto), the bill becomes law!

Bill Summary

(sigh) Oh joy, another bill that's about as effective as a Band-Aid on a bullet wound. Let's dissect this farce.

**Main Purpose & Objectives:** The China Exchange Rate Transparency Act of 2025 is a laughable attempt to strong-arm China into being more transparent about its exchange rate policies. The bill's sponsors think they can shame China into behaving by... wait for it... asking the IMF to ask China nicely. Yeah, because that's worked so well in the past.

**Key Provisions & Changes to Existing Law:** The bill instructs the Secretary of the Treasury to tell the US Executive Director at the IMF to advocate for increased transparency from China. Wow, I bet China is shaking in its boots. The bill also includes some vague language about "enhanced multilateral and bilateral surveillance" by the IMF, which is just a fancy way of saying "we'll keep an eye on them, maybe."

**Affected Parties & Stakeholders:** China, obviously, but also US businesses that trade with China, and anyone who thinks this bill will actually accomplish something. Spoiler alert: it won't.

**Potential Impact & Implications:** This bill is a classic case of "legislative theater." It's designed to make politicians look tough on China without actually doing anything meaningful. The real impact will be zero, zilch, nada. China will continue to do what it wants, and the US will continue to pretend like this bill accomplished something.

Diagnosis: This bill is suffering from a bad case of "Potemkin Village Syndrome," where politicians create a facade of action without actually addressing the underlying issue. The real disease here is the lack of meaningful policy towards China, but hey, at least we can pretend like we're doing something.

Treatment: A healthy dose of skepticism and a strong stomach for the inevitable disappointment that follows. Voters, stop electing politicians who think this kind of nonsense will fool you. Politicians, stop wasting our time with empty gestures. And China... well, China will just keep on being China.

Generated using Llama 3.1 70B (Dr. Haus personality)

💰 Campaign Finance Network

Rep. Meuser, Daniel [R-PA-9]

Congress 119 • 2024 Election Cycle

Total Contributions
$99,770
21 donors
PACs
$0
Organizations
$3,500
Committees
$0
Individuals
$96,270

No PAC contributions found

1
PRIDE MOBILITY PRODUCTS CORP
1 transaction
$2,500
2
COTLER, YUDACUFSKI, HUEBNER
1 transaction
$1,000

No committee contributions found

1
DOWD, JOHN J
2 transactions
$13,200
2
PEYKOFF, ANDY
1 transaction
$6,600
3
ROWAN, MARC J
1 transaction
$6,600
4
ROWAN, CAROLYN
1 transaction
$6,600
5
RICH, BRIAN R MR. JR
1 transaction
$6,600
6
VOLPE, ELLEN M
1 transaction
$5,800
7
VOLPE, CHARLES J
1 transaction
$5,800
8
B ASHER, ROBERT
1 transaction
$5,000
9
ROSE, VIRGINIA S
1 transaction
$5,000
10
ASHER, ROBERT B MR.
1 transaction
$4,900
11
KNIGHT, PETER H
1 transaction
$3,500
12
GOLDEAN, PAUL
1 transaction
$3,435
13
MCCARTHY JR, JOHN
1 transaction
$3,435
14
ALLISON, LAWRENCE S JR.
1 transaction
$3,300
15
MERICLE, KIM E
1 transaction
$3,300
16
SCHLOUCH, BARRY L
1 transaction
$3,300
17
PUGH, BRENDA M
1 transaction
$3,300
18
COATES, JOHN O
1 transaction
$3,300
19
CLEMENTS, BRIAN W
1 transaction
$3,300

Cosponsors & Their Campaign Finance

This bill has 10 cosponsors. Below are their top campaign contributors.

Rep. Loudermilk, Barry [R-GA-11]

ID: L000583

Top Contributors

20

1
BOLCH, CARL MR. JR.
IndividualATLANTA, GA
$3,300
Dec 11, 2023
2
STEPHENSON, DONNA MRS.
NONE • HOMEMAKER
IndividualATLANTA, GA
$3,300
Dec 31, 2023
3
STEPHENSON, DONNA MRS.
NONE • HOMEMAKER
IndividualATLANTA, GA
$3,300
Dec 31, 2023
4
STEPHENSON, JAMES MR.
YANCEY BROTHERS • CHAIRMAN
IndividualATLANTA, GA
$3,300
Dec 31, 2023
5
STEPHENSON, JAMES MR.
YANCEY BROTHERS • CHAIRMAN
IndividualATLANTA, GA
$3,300
Dec 31, 2023
6
STEPHENS, WARREN
IndividualLITTLE ROCK, AR
$3,300
Dec 4, 2023
7
STEPHENS, WARREN
IndividualLITTLE ROCK, AR
$3,300
Dec 4, 2023
8
TEAGUE, GREGORY D. MR.
CROY ENGINEERING • ENGINEER
IndividualELLIJAY, GA
$3,300
Oct 11, 2023
9
DICKERSON, JASON
QUEST • PRESIDENT
IndividualCANTON, GA
$3,300
Mar 12, 2024
10
MORRIS, JOHN
REPAY HOLDINGS • CEO
IndividualATLANTA, GA
$3,300
Mar 13, 2024

Rep. Lee, Susie [D-NV-3]

ID: L000590

Top Contributors

30

1
EMILY'S LIST
CONDUIT TOTAL LISTED IN AGG. FIELD
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$250
Feb 13, 2024
2
FEDERATED INDIANS OF GRATON RANCHERIA
OrganizationROHNERT PARK, CA
$3,300
Jun 27, 2023
3
FEDERATED INDIANS OF GRATON RANCHERIA
OrganizationROHNERT PARK, CA
$3,300
Jun 27, 2023
4
TIGUA INDIAN RESERVATION YSLETA DEL SUR PUEBLO
OrganizationEL PASO, TX
$3,000
Dec 31, 2023
5
SHAKOPEE MDEWAKANTON SIOUX COMMUNITY
OrganizationPRIOR LAKE, MN
$1,650
Jun 5, 2023
6
SHAKOPEE MDEWAKANTON SIOUX COMMUNITY
OrganizationPRIOR LAKE, MN
$1,650
May 9, 2024
7
BARONA BAND OF MISSION INDIANS
OrganizationLAS VEGAS, NV
$1,500
Jun 30, 2024
8
CHEROKEE NATION
OrganizationTAHLEQUAH, OK
$1,000
Dec 28, 2023
9
RENO SPARKS INDIAN COLONY
OrganizationRENO, NV
$1,000
Jun 21, 2024
10
BRONZE CAFE
OrganizationLAS VEGAS, NV
$550
Mar 30, 2023

Rep. De La Cruz, Monica [R-TX-15]

ID: D000594

Top Contributors

23

1
CHOCTAW NATION OF OKLAHOMA
OrganizationDURANT, OK
$3,300
Aug 29, 2024
2
THE CHICKASAW NATION
OrganizationADA, OK
$3,300
Aug 29, 2024
3
ALABAMA- COUSHATTA TRIBE
OrganizationLIVINGSTON, TX
$1,000
Oct 16, 2024
4
ADKINS, JAMES
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualHUNTINGTON, WV
$6,600
Oct 24, 2024
5
MOUSSEAU, RAYMOND
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualCROSWELL, MI
$6,600
Jun 2, 2024
6
DILAMANI, EDWARD
AGC • BUSINESSMAN
IndividualGREAT NECK, NY
$6,600
Jul 8, 2024
7
EMIG, SUELLEN
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualFREEDOM, PA
$6,600
Sep 29, 2024
8
STEWART, FORREST
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualDESOTO, IL
$6,534
Feb 13, 2024
9
SPECHT, VIVIAN
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualLYMAN, NE
$5,940
Aug 7, 2024
10
CERDA, JULIO
S TEXAS INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP • PARTNER
IndividualMISSION, TX
$5,000
Oct 25, 2024

Rep. Moolenaar, John R. [R-MI-2]

ID: M001194

Top Contributors

36

1
MATCH-E-BE-NASH-SHE-WISH BAND POTTAWATOMI INDIANS
OrganizationSHELBYVILLE, MI
$3,300
Aug 30, 2023
2
PECHANGA BAND OF INDIANS
OrganizationTEMECULA, CA
$3,300
Aug 30, 2023
3
POKAGON BAND OF POTAWATOMI INDIANS
OrganizationDOWAGIAC, MI
$3,300
Aug 30, 2023
4
SAGINAW CHIPPEWA INDIAN TRIBE TRIBAL OPERATIONS
OrganizationMOUNT PLEASANT, MI
$3,300
Sep 30, 2023
5
SHINGLE SPRINGS BAND OF MIWOK INDIANS
OrganizationSHINGLE SPRINGS, CA
$3,300
Sep 30, 2023
6
NOTTAWASEPPI HURON BAND OF THE POTAWATOMI
OrganizationFULTON, MI
$3,300
Mar 12, 2024
7
SHAKOPEE MDEWAKANTON SIOUX COMMUNITY
OrganizationPRIOR LAKE, MN
$3,300
Jun 20, 2024
8
SAULT STE. MARIE TRIBE CHIPPEWA INDIANS
OrganizationSAULT SAINTE MARIE, MI
$2,900
Dec 19, 2023
9
SAN MANUEL BAND OF MISSION INDIANS
OrganizationLOS ANGELES, CA
$2,500
Mar 4, 2024
10
SHINGLE SPRINGS BAND OF MIWOK INDIANS
OrganizationSHINGLE SPRINGS, CA
$2,500
Sep 30, 2024

Rep. Messmer, Mark [R-IN-8]

ID: M001233

Top Contributors

59

1
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,300
Apr 11, 2024
2
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,300
Apr 11, 2024
3
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,300
Apr 11, 2024
4
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,300
Apr 11, 2024
5
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,300
Apr 11, 2024
6
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,300
Apr 11, 2024
7
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,300
Apr 11, 2024
8
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,300
Apr 11, 2024
9
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,300
Apr 11, 2024
10
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC
PACWASHINGTON, DC
$3,000
Apr 11, 2024

Rep. Lawler, Michael [R-NY-17]

ID: L000599

Top Contributors

21

1
MURTAGH, COSSU, VENDITTI & CASTRO-BLANCO, LLP
OrganizationWHITE PLAINS, NY
$1,000
Feb 24, 2024
2
BATMASIAN, JAMES
INVESTMENTS LIMITED • OWNER
IndividualBOCA RATON, FL
$6,600
Sep 27, 2023
3
BATMASIAN, JAMES
IndividualBOCA RATON, FL
$6,600
Sep 29, 2023
4
AUSTIN, ROBERT
UNAKA CO., INC. • BUSINESSMAN
IndividualDALLAS, TX
$6,600
Jul 18, 2024
5
SILVERMAN, JEFFREY
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualSURFSIDE, FL
$6,534
Feb 15, 2024
6
SILVERMAN, JEFFREY
IndividualSURFSIDE, FL
$6,534
Feb 22, 2024
7
SCALA, MARY ELLEN
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualPORT CHESTER, NY
$5,300
Aug 27, 2023
8
DEUTSCH, SHMULEY
SELF • PRESIDENT
IndividualSPRING VALLEY, NY
$3,900
Jun 24, 2024
9
DEUTSCH, SHMULEY
IndividualSPRING VALLEY, NY
$3,900
Jun 25, 2024
10
PERLMUTTER, RAFUEL
GOLDEN TASTE • CEO
IndividualSPRING VALLEY, NY
$3,400
Jun 24, 2024

Rep. Cline, Ben [R-VA-6]

ID: C001118

Top Contributors

21

1
THE CHICKASAW NATION
OrganizationADA, OK
$1,000
Oct 31, 2023
2
JOHNSON, CAMERON MR.
MAGIC CITY FORD • CAR DEALER
IndividualROANOKE, VA
$3,300
Nov 21, 2024
3
ROSENBERG, DIANE MS.
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualROANOKE, VA
$3,300
Nov 4, 2024
4
STOLTZFUS, MELISSA
HOMEMAKER • HOMEMAKER
IndividualBRIDGEWATER, VA
$3,300
Nov 5, 2024
5
STOLTZFUS, MICHAEL
DYNAMIC AVIATION • PRESIDENT & CEO
IndividualBRIDGEWATER, VA
$3,300
Nov 5, 2024
6
STOLTZFUS, MICHAEL
DYNAMIC AVIATION • PRESIDENT & CEO
IndividualBRIDGEWATER, VA
$3,300
Nov 13, 2024
7
CLINE, JULIA S MRS.
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualLEXINGTON, VA
$3,300
Dec 31, 2023
8
CLINE, JULIA S MRS.
RETIRED • RETIRED
IndividualLEXINGTON, VA
$3,300
Dec 31, 2023
9
CARTLEDGE, GEORGE B MR. III
GRAND HOME FURNISHINGS • PRESIDENT
IndividualROANOKE, VA
$3,300
Mar 30, 2023
10
CARTLEDGE, GEORGE B MR. III
GRAND HOME FURNISHINGS • PRESIDENT
IndividualROANOKE, VA
$3,300
Mar 30, 2023

Rep. Suozzi, Thomas R. [D-NY-3]

ID: S001201

Top Contributors

24

1
FEDERATED INDIANS OF GRATON RANCHERIA
OrganizationROHNERT PARK, CA
$3,300
Aug 3, 2024
2
SCOTTO LLC
OrganizationWOODBURY, NY
$1,650
Aug 30, 2024
3
PATROON OPERATING CO. LLC
OrganizationNEW YORK, NY
$1,000
May 13, 2024
4
THE KLAR ORGANIZATION
OrganizationEAST MEADOW, NY
$1,000
Aug 8, 2024
5
TERIAN, OLIVIA
IndividualNEW YORK, NY
$9,400
May 2, 2024
6
TERIAN, OLIVIA
OLIVIA TERIAN ART & DESIGN • BUSINESS OWNER
IndividualNEW YORK, NY
$6,600
Mar 8, 2024
7
MORAN, MARY
NOT EMPLOYED • RETIRED
IndividualGREENWICH, CT
$6,600
Mar 28, 2024
8
MORAN, MARY
IndividualGREENWICH, CT
$6,600
May 2, 2024
9
FAIVUS, HARRY E.
MOUNT SINAI • PHYSICIAN
IndividualNEW YORK, NY
$5,000
Oct 31, 2024
10
SOSNICK, AARON
IndividualRENO, NV
$3,392
Jun 25, 2024

Rep. Thompson, Glenn [R-PA-15]

ID: T000467

Top Contributors

38

1
BUTLER MACHINE
OrganizationTULELAKE, CA
$3,300
Oct 15, 2024
2
CHOCTAW NATION OF OKLAHOMA
OrganizationDURANT, OK
$3,300
Oct 15, 2024
3
BUTLER MACHINE
OrganizationTULELAKE, CA
$3,300
Nov 13, 2024
4
CORTINA HULLING & SHELLING GROUP
OrganizationWILLIAMS, CA
$3,300
Nov 13, 2024
5
AG VENTURES
OrganizationELIZABETHTOWN, PA
$2,500
May 1, 2023
6
ROESLEIN ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, LLC
OrganizationST. LOUIS, MO
$2,000
May 18, 2023
7
RANCH 440
OrganizationMECCA, CA
$1,500
May 22, 2023
8
KOHL REAL ESTATE
OrganizationKITTANNING, PA
$1,000
Mar 11, 2024
9
DWIGHT STANSEL FARM & NURSERY
OrganizationWELLBORN, FL
$1,000
May 30, 2023
10
HIGHLINE GRAIN GROWERS INC
OrganizationDAVENPORT, WA
$1,000
Jun 13, 2023

Rep. Bice, Stephanie I. [R-OK-5]

ID: B000740

Top Contributors

32

1
EASTERN BAND OF CHEROKEE INDIANS
COMCHEROKEE, NC
$3,300
Dec 27, 2023
2
CHEROKEE NATION
COMTAHLEQUAH, OK
$3,300
Sep 30, 2024
3
PECHANGA BAND OF INDIANS
COMTEMECULA, CA
$3,300
Jun 10, 2024
4
MS BAND OF CHOCTAW INDIANS
COMCHOCTAW, MS
$1,000
Dec 19, 2023
5
MORONGO BAND OF MISSION INDIANS NATIVE AMERICAN RIGHTS FUND
PACBANNING, CA
$1,000
Mar 31, 2024
6
MUSCOGEE CREEK NATION
COMOKMULGEE, OK
$1,000
Aug 7, 2024
7
BARONA BAND OF MISSION INDIANS
COMLAKESIDE, CA
$1,000
Jun 30, 2023
8
MUSCOGEE CREEK NATION
COMOKMULGEE, OK
$500
Dec 5, 2023
9
CHOCTAW NATION OF OKLAHOMA
OrganizationDURANT, OK
$3,300
Dec 24, 2023
10
THE CHICKASAW NATION
OrganizationADA, OK
$3,300
May 22, 2024

Donor Network - Rep. Meuser, Daniel [R-PA-9]

PACs
Organizations
Individuals
Politicians

Hub layout: Politicians in center, donors arranged by type in rings around them.

Loading...

Showing 35 nodes and 35 connections

Total contributions: $35

Top Donors - Rep. Meuser, Daniel [R-PA-9]

Showing top 21 donors by contribution amount

2 Orgs19 Individuals

Industry Impact

Which industries are materially affected by specific provisions in this bill. 3 harmed.

  • −Big Tech Platformsconfidence 0.60

    Section 3 implies increased scrutiny of China's exchange rate policies and potential restrictions on Chinese financial institutions or state-owned enterprises, which could impact big tech platforms with significant business ties to China, such as Apple or Microsoft.

  • −Commercial Banksconfidence 0.60

    Section 3(1) mentions 'indirect foreign exchange market intervention through Chinese financial institutions', which could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny of commercial banks operating in China, such as JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America.

  • Section 3(3) mentions 'stronger consideration by IMF members and management of the performance of China as a responsible stakeholder', which could lead to increased scrutiny of private equity firms or hedge funds with significant investments in China.

Who funds the sponsor on these industries

For each industry this bill affects, here's what the sponsor (Rep. Meuser, Daniel [R-PA-9])received from donors associated with that industry during the 2022–present cycles. Donations are not proof of intent — they are a record of who funds the people writing the law.

Industries this bill HARMS

Project 2025 Policy Matches

This bill shows semantic similarity to the following sections of the Project 2025 policy document.AI-enhanced analysis provides detailed alignment ratings.

Trade

Strong
Vector: 64%
Pages: 816-818AI Enhanced

AI Analysis:

"The bill directly addresses currency manipulation—a key tool of Communist China's economic aggression highlighted in Project 2025—by seeking greater transparency and IMF surveillance of China's exchange rate policies, thereby supporting the broader trade agenda of countering China's mercantilist practices."

Key themes:currency manipulationtrade deficitseconomic aggressionIMF surveillancetransparency

— 783 — Trade tariffs.17 A conservative Administration might do well to look at such a tax as part of its trade agenda. CHALLENGE #2: COMMUNIST CHINA’S ECONOMIC AGGRESSION AND QUEST FOR WORLD DOMINATION18 Among all of its bilateral trade relationships, America’s relationship with Com- munist China is the most fraught with difficulty. The problem is not just that the relentlessly mercantilist and protectionist trade policies that China has pursued ever since its accession to the WTO in 2001 have led to chronic, massive, and ever-expanding trade deficits. Communist China’s economic aggression in the traditional trade policy space is further facilitated by equally aggressive industrial policies and technology transfer–forcing policies that are designed to shift the world’s manufacturing and supply chains to Communist Chinese soil. The Chinese Communist Party’s policy goal is to propel the Chinese economy, but its broader goal is to strengthen Communist China’s defense industrial base and associated warfighting capabilities. That China unabashedly seeks to supplant America as the world’s dominant economic and military power is not in dispute. Rather, it is a prominent feature of Communist Chinese dictator Xi Jinping’s rhet- oric. Xi has promised that the deed will be done by 2049, the 100-year anniversary of the Communist takeover of the Mainland.19 In light of Communist China’s broader geopolitical and military agenda, the American President who takes office in January 2025 must view the U.S.–China trade relationship and associated policy reforms within the context of the broader existential threat posed by Communist China. The question is whether that next President should seek to decouple economically and financially from Communist China as America’s first best response to China’s unrelenting aggression or con- tinue efforts to negotiate with an authoritarian country and brutal dictatorship with a well-established reputation for failing to abide by any agreements it enters. Institutionalized Aggression. Table 5 depicts more than 50 types of policy aggression institutionalized by the CCP across six different categories of such aggression. Viewed as whole, the extent of Communist China’s aggression is breathtaking. At the trade policy level, Communist China relies heavily on a wide range of mercantilist and protectionist tools to protect its own markets and unfairly exploit foreign markets. These instruments of Communist Chinese trade aggression include high tariffs and nontariff barriers, currency manipulation, a heavy reli- ance on sweatshop labor and pollution havens, the dumping of unfairly subsidized exports, and widespread counterfeiting and piracy: Communist China is the world’s largest source of counterfeit and pirated products. In addition, Communist Chinese enterprises benefit from preferential policies that have burdened world markets with subsidized overcapacity. The resultant glut

Trade

Moderate
Vector: 65%
Pages: 846-848AI Enhanced

AI Analysis:

"Both the bill and the Project 2025 trade section aim to counter China's unfair economic practices and increase accountability, but the bill focuses on IMF-driven exchange rate transparency while Project 2025 emphasizes WTO status, targeted firm actions, and trade agreements like TPP/IPEF."

Key themes:China trade policyeconomic transparencyIMF surveillancecountering unfair practicesmultilateral engagement

— 814 — Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise l Its beneficiaries have proven they can get adequate financing from private banks. EXIM’s charter expires at the end of 2026. The agency will close automatically unless Congress and the President decide to extend it. Closing EXIM should be one of the next Administration’s easiest decisions. Adopting a Multi-Pronged China Strategy. An effective American policy toward China needs to take a realistic view of the country, its leaders, their strengths, and the serious challenges they face. It should be comprehensive and flexible. A threatened CCP is dangerous, perhaps now more than at any time since Mao Tse-Tung, as Xi Jinping continues to use strong-arm tactics to consolidate his power and saber-rattling to challenge the international order. At the same time, recent revelations about China’s official statistics overstating its GDP by 30 percent track well with other problems that were already known.77 These include one of the world’s worst demographic aging curves thanks to China’s one-child policy; a population that may already be declining; an unsustainable debt load that is already causing problems; countless failed boondoggles, from empty cities to its underwhelming Belt-and-Road Initiative, that are wasting significant resources; Xi Jinping’s authoritarian turn; increasing state control of the economy; and a zero-COVID policy that has sabotaged the economy and driven away foreign investment.78 America has its problems, but it is in better shape than China on nearly every measure, especially in the long run. While the facts on the ground should inoculate the next Administration against the most strident China fearmongering circulating in the media and in Washington, that does not mean that the government in Beijing is no threat to American interests. The question is: What should we do about it? A serious China policy will require American policymakers to integrate doc- trines, institutional prerogatives, expertise, and realistic objectives. Traditional Cabinet-level bureaucracies like those at the Departments of Defense, State, and Commerce will need to work together to pursue a comprehensive American strat- egy. Scores of incremental, narrowly targeted policies are necessary. They will not make for good soundbites on cable news, and many will operate slowly and out of sight from most news cycles even as progress is made. An effective China policy must also allow for adaptation because the CCP will not sit idly by. As people react to developments, America needs flexible options. Trade isolationism is inherently inflexible because it reduces the number of con- tact points with China. This is a tougher political sell than loud, simplistic jeremiads, but going the extra mile to solve these difficult coordination problems is vital to America’s interests. Trade and engagement with China are necessary if we are to contain the threats that China poses to its neighbors and to the U.S. The next Administration should: — 815 — Trade l End China’s developing-nation status in the WTO and other international organizations. China is an advanced manufacturing economy and should be treated as such, even if its political and legal institutions remain those of a developing nation, to prevent it from exploiting its status to gain special privileges. l Use a target, not a blanket. There should be actions against Chinese firms that are known to have engaged in unfair trade practices such as intellectual property theft. Rather than blanket tariffs or non-tariff barriers aimed at entire Chinese industry sectors, firms that act in bad faith should be targeted individually. This policy was employed to good effect early in the Trump Administration but was abandoned in favor of a less effective blanket tariff policy. l Rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Dropping out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement might have been the Trump Administration’s biggest trade policy mistake. The TPP was already negotiated and would have strengthened an alliance against China, including most of its biggest trading partners in East Asia and the Americas. America’s departure created tensions and infighting, distracting the U.S. and its allies from the goal at hand: countering China. The other 11 TPP countries continue, without American input or influence, under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPATPP) to develop a modern institutional framework to contain Chinese commercial imperialism. Rejoining this alliance should be a top priority in the next conservative Administration’s China policy. Accession negotiations are likely to be difficult, given that the CPATPP suspended several clauses that were important to the United States (such as provisions relating to patents and aspects of investor-state dispute resolution) when the U.S. pulled out of the TPP agreement in 2017. Diplomatic and economic pressure against Beijing will be more effective when its largest trading partners work in concert. Beijing’s diplomats will have a hard time employing a divide-and-conquer policy against a united front of the sort that the TPP offers. l Refocus the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity on trade. President Biden began the process to create IPEF in 2022, but any agreement will likely still be under negotiation when the next Administration takes office. IPEF is similar to the TPP, but its member

Department of the Treasury

Moderate
Vector: 65%
Pages: 736-738AI Enhanced

AI Analysis:

"Both the bill and the Project 2025 section aim to increase transparency and oversight of China's economic activities using U.S. Treasury-led institutions, but they target different mechanisms (IMF exchange rate surveillance vs. CFIUS investment review)."

Key themes:ChinaTreasurytransparencygeopolitical threatoversight

— 703 — Department of the Treasury l The U.S. should also examine increasing or decreasing its ownership levels in these institutions in order to achieve maximum leverage. CHINA AND OTHER GEOPOLITICAL THREATS Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. The interagency Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States should realign its priorities to meet the United States’ current foreign policy threats, especially from China. On October 20, 2022, the Treasury Department, which chairs CFIUS, adopted the first-ever CFIUS Enforcement and Penalty Guidelines50 on the committee’s national security risk mitigation requirements. However, there are no clear rules that guide CFIUS on mitigation monitoring, nor is there a published penalty sched- ule to standardize accountability when CFIUS pursues a civil money penalty for violators. In addition, Treasury—as chair of the committee—runs an opaque pro- cess that biases committee procedure toward corporate interests and away from national security interests. Finally, the committee’s jurisdiction does not extend over greenfield investments that Chinese state-owned enterprises have historically pursued in the United States, which leaves America vulnerable to an instrument of Chinese economic statecraft. Given these issues, the next steps for CFIUS should be to develop a more coherent—and transparent—mitigation monitoring program to complement the enforcement guidelines, give CFIUS agencies in charge of national security con- cerns an equal voice at the table, and petition Congress to amend the law to cover Chinese greenfield investments. CFIUS should publish a penalty schedule for violations of CFIUS reporting and mitigation requirements. Publishing a penalty schedule for CFIUS violations will reduce the discretion of the committee to waive penalties or impose mere “wrist slap” costs on violators of the law. Additionally, a standardized penalty schedule would likely increase the deterrence of CFIUS enforcement by reducing the per- ception among parties to covered transactions that they can avoid enforcement by the committee or secure special exceptions based on appeals to the commit- tee’s discretion. As a legal matter—and in application by CFIUS—mitigation monitoring has developed as the Wild West. There are no clear rules that guide the entire com- mittee on mitigation monitoring, nor is there the same level of oversight or accountability within and among the agencies as applies when CFIUS reviews a transaction or when it pursues a civil money penalty. Indeed, it is a credit to transaction parties and the professionalism of the governmental officials and con- tractors who conduct mitigation monitoring on behalf of the government that, by and large, mitigation monitoring has worked adequately during the last several decades. But dependency on the personality and capabilities of individuals creates unnecessary risk both for CFIUS and for transaction parties.

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About These Correlations

Policy matches are calculated using a hybrid approach: initial candidates are found using semantic similarity between bill summaries and Project 2025 policy text, then an AI model (Llama 3.1 70B) provides detailed alignment ratings and analysis. Ratings range from 1 (minimal alignment) to 5 (very strong alignment). This analysis does not imply direct causation or intent.

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